24 January, 2013

Weaning the World from fossil fuels:


Weaning the World from fossil fuels:

Why we can't just jump to green energy & alternative fuels overnight.

1/A CLEAR PLAN & ECONOMICS OF GOING GREEN

First and foremost, we do have a need to migrate away from fossil fuels, but there are serious problems with any attempt to do so with anything less than a concrete, yet somewhat flexible plan that utilizes a mix of alternatives such as wind power, nuclear, clean coal, natural gas and fuels that are not made from food crops. A tax that would create the funding is not a good idea given the national debt and the current recession, as it would create a near death spiral for the western economies. It would not only affect the US Economy, it would stretch it's tentacles into China, OPEC, Mexico and many other trade partners and affect to some degree every other economy in the world as US goods became either too expensive or incredibly cheap, depending on what was taxed and how it was applied. It would slow the German and Chinese economies if their exports were to suddenly lose their market advantage, which is already close to happening if you monitor the indexes pertaining to China's cost factors. The strong US Dollar actually has an adverse effect on their exports globally as the Yuan is tied to the dollar. A weak Euro has some advantages for Germany in the area of export, but the debt crisis in Greece and the dangerous precipice that Hungary, Romania, Italy, Spain and Portugal are on as well as the situations in Iceland and the United Kingdom do not reflect a shift in the Euro's weak position for a good time to come.

Thus, any shift to alternative fuels and alternative energy needs to be a gradual and well planned shift, not a rapid change of the status quo as the global economic state as well as the US economy will be adversely affected by the great expense upfront and the slow tide of return. This is without considering any sort of waste (which is inherent in government programs), merely considering that not everything that will be tried will pan out correctly or as effectively as it works in the laboratory trial. Additionally we have a lack of proper infrastructure, physics working against us in the case of solar and hydrogen power and the aging electrical grid for a few of the obvious major obstacles.

Let's face it, can you name or locate one single biodiesel or ethanol pipeline in the United States? The fact is that delivery of these fuels as well as hydrogen are hampered by the lack of infrastructure and all the wishing in the world will not deliver the fuels to market effectively. A new infrastructure is called for and a plan to roll it out economically as well.

How do we get there from here? Careful planning and the realization of natural obstacles is a good start, but we really have to look at increasing our output and reducing our foreign dependence to cut imbalances and begin to shift funds back into the system, as well as increasing the output via export of national resources, which requires simplified compliance and lowered cost of compliance and start up for coal mining, petroleum production, natural gas production, fuel refining and the production of other natural resources such as our precious metals. We have the technology available, but inventors lack the proper conduit and intellectual property safeguards and this prevents them from coming forward with their inventions for fear that they will see years of work stolen in a heartbeat. So, there is a two part answer here: First, we accelerate production of our natural resources to ease trade deficits and produce exports which can have a dramatic effect on our trade numbers in a fairly short order and Second, we use Chambers of Commerce, Rotaries and other local groups to create incubators for the inventors and coordinate programs and testing of concepts with area resources such as Universities. Innovation and production must be achieved without an undue tax burden and without the current reams of red tape. Both of these goals can be realized by working closely with local preexisting resources. The way out of our current state requires working cooperatively and streamlining cumbersome processes while putting more people to work.

2/ WHERE DO WE BEGIN?

As stated above, we must use our fossil fuels, as well as our abundant natural resources and we must move along a viable and realistic timeline that makes economic and logistical sense, which is to say that we have to use what we have readily available first, then move to what we can build in 3 years, then 5, then 10. Each of these phases must have a realistic budget and there must be three layers of logistics: Local, Regional and National and all of these must have a coordinated plan and communication. Coal does not exist in every State, nor every region, the same is true for Natural Gas, Shale, Oil, Gold and every other natural resource.

Wind power is better suited to some areas than others and Wave power requires being near the oceans or a larger body of water, just as hydroelectric power bears considerations of the water's force, volume and the environmental impact. The best source for this information is a combination of our maps from agencies such as the Department of Energy, combined with the local knowledge of the area and perhaps with incentives for use of private land with revenue sharing, much like the way an oil lease makes a return for a private owner, even if there is a corporation that installs the means to produce energy or resources. The next two layers of the exploration and use are based in the satellite mapping technology and expert analysis including subterranean mapping and rock flow dynamics.



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